The (Un)Inevitability of War Between China and America

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And the Destabilization of North Korea

By JC Collins

As the world continues the shift from a unipolar American dominated world to a multilateral world based on the fair political and economic representation of all countries, there remains flashpoints of tension and possible conflict in regions of the world which have acted as hinges, or gateways, for American hegemony.

The war and political back and forth taking place in Ukraine is one of these regions. The area acts as a natural divide between the Russian geopolitical sphere and the American hegemonic European sphere, a sphere which is now slowly moving away from US dominance and into the multilateral framework.

The war taking place in Yemen and quickly spreading into Saudi Arabia is another one of these regions which is seeking realignment as the global governance structure is shuffled. The relationship between the House of Saud and countless American administrations, which have represented the interests of the Federal Reserve, is now being fragmented and re-organized under a regional energy policy, which will more accurately reflect the multilateral framework being implemented.

The outcomes in each of the regions listed above are not difficult to determine. Whether it’s Ukraine, Syria, Saudi Arabia, or even islands in the South Pacific, the natural transition of regional influence and multilateral integration are becoming more visible with each passing week and month.

The realignment of global governance structures is taking place as powerful international players grind and push against one another like tectonic plates. Some slide pass each other while others go under and above through methods of geopolitical and socioeconomic subduction.

As such, it has been often concluded that war between China and America is on the horizon and is unavoidable. The logic is that as one empire is in collapse it will attack or attempt to maintain power by waging war against the rising power. History has shown us that this never ends well for the outgoing power.

The reasoning behind these conclusions is based on the analysis that China is taking over from America as the world’s dominant power. This thought process ignores the reality that China is in fact a benign country and has stated categorically that it does not want to replace the US as the world’s sole superpower. It has though, expressed a need to be fairly represented on the world stage.

The avoidance of war is China’s top priority as the multilateral transition continues. The fear of a warmongering China is a manufactured product based on Western propaganda and its own projection of moral shortcomings.

The nature of the multilateral framework is such that the world is not witnessing the replacement of one hegemonic power with another, but the replacement of the current hegemonic power with a multilateral power based on the principles and economic mandates of all regions and countries.

The model of outgoing power waging war against the incoming power falls apart in a multilateral structure as the outgoing power cannot fight the entire world. This fact has recently been dramatized and publicized in the application process for the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, as once American aligned countries went against the wishes of the outgoing hegemonic power and sided with the possibilities of a multilateral future.

America’s ability to wage war against a rising multilateral power is a non-starter, and both China and Russia have implemented foreign policies based on that awareness. America’s frustration with the proxy wars in Ukraine, Syria, and now Yemen, are underscored by the confident approach of Russia and China in handling each crisis.

American hegemony is collapsing under the subduction pressure of each conflict.

North Korea presents all sides with unique challenges that are not as easily solved as the ongoing nuclear negotiations with Iran. The conclusion of whether or not the reclusive nation is a tool of American interests or Chinese interests is open to debate. When one considers the justification which America has for maintaining a large military presence on the Korean peninsula, within range of China, it’s hard to imagine that the North serves any other purpose but that of a Western one.

That fact that North Korea is represented in Western culture in a cartoonish manner is tantamount to admittance of such a relationship. The constant propaganda surrounding North Korea and its weird leadership continues to create this justification for American military presence.

The other side of this equation is that China has helped sustain North Korea by providing it with fuel, food, and weapons. It’s almost as if North Korea has been serving two masters while domestically entertaining itself at the expense of the people.

Over the last few years China has become increasingly concerned about the possibility of North Korea reaching a nuclear deal with America, which would leave China on the outside. Equally as troubling for China would a collapse of the North Korean leadership, leading to a potential vacuum which American interests would attempt to fill with troops and corporate contracts.

What is certain is that North Korea will not cause a larger war between America and China. Like the other proxy wars, the Korean peninsula would be contained as a regional conflict, only because the costs to America for a larger war involving direct engagement with China would diminish its position within the multilateral framework even further.

It is my conclusion that China has begun operations to destabilize North Korea based on a strategy of preventing American interests from gaining a stronger foothold in the country. The collapse of North Korea, which has been a concern of China for many years, can be managed and directed from Beijing without the unknown variables associated with an uncontrolled collapse, or regime change orchestrated from the west. A managed collapse by China would also be preferable to Beijing over a peace agreement made between North Korea and America. North Korea is already worried about being betrayed by China, which is pushing it into the negotiating arms of America.

In the last few months more and more stories are emerging telling tales of North Korean soldiers defecting into China. Some of these soldiers are committing crimes in the border towns while it is rumored that others are building an army to invade back into North Korea and overthrow the Kim regime. This army would obviously have to be sanctioned and funded by China.

It has been reported that North Korea has begun sending tanks and other armored vehicles to the border with China. China has been sending troops to its border with North Korea.

In addition, China has recently cut off fuel supplies to the North, creating tension and internal pressure on the Kim government, supported by the growing army of defectors just across the border in China.

This sequence of events supports the conclusion that China can destabilize North Korea at any time, and in fact has begun to do so. Any response to the collapse of North Korea would be handled regionally and would be focused on bringing economic stability and reform to the country, both necessary conditions for the North to be integrated within the multilateral framework.

China would work with the United Nations in the event of a collapse and would send troops into North Korea for the purpose of:

  1. Humanitarian efforts to assist the population and ensure vital infrastructure is safeguarded.
  2. Peacekeeping mission to ensure a proper transition of rule is implemented.
  3. Environmental control with a focus on nuclear cleanup after the bombing of nuclear facilities and the inevitable contamination from such strikes.
  4. Securing of loose nuclear weapons and material in the days and weeks after the collapse.

The bombing of North Korean nuclear facilities could be orchestrated by America only, China only, or a combination of both, working on mandates from the United Nations. Once the North Korean government begins to collapse, it will not matter what, or who, was the source of the collapse. The only thing that will matter is the control and management of the transition.

The days of the current North Korea leadership are numbered and with it China will remove one of the last points of conflict and tension which is preventing the whole region from being successfully integrated into the multilateral architecture.

With the fall of the Kim Dynasty will come an end to any real threat of direct military engagement between China and America, which is something the US needs and China wants. The geopolitical cleanup of the US hegemonic framework is well under way. - JC

Further research:

Chinese Views of Economic Reform and Stability in North Korea

North Korean Defectors Building Army to Topple Kim Jong-un

The China-North Korea Relationship

Can the United States and China avoid A Thucydides Trap?

41 Comments on “The (Un)Inevitability of War Between China and America”

  1. Hello JC,

    Been reading your articles for a while now. In this particular analysis above, I wonder why you think (or dont) that the US will not attempt to do another 'fukushima' style with NK, which will - a. help prove its point that NK was going to build the nuke bomb, and b. destabilise the region and show them "who's the boss"!!
    This, ofcourse, is assuming that US(CIA) did the fukushima 'thingy' in the first place...
    Your comments will be greatly appreciated.

  2. Excellent piece.
    I spend 6 months of the year in S/K, am going back next week. When I tell people there will be normal relations between the two in 5 years.
    They look at me like I am crazy. Kim Jung Un was educated in Switzerland, he is most likely diabetic and has gout among other things at a very young age.
    But he and the Generals are not suicidal.
    Another possibility is that there will be an inner coup from his "mentors" Generals. China is looking to restart the 6 way talks. Putin has said he wants to play a major role. Talk is still there about a rail line going through N/K to S/K. S/K, Russia and China will have to take the lead.
    Many still believe that the US is in S/K to contain China and Russia. And also to protect Japan not ROK. N/K needs everything from toilet paper to turbines. And the capitalist countries are more than happy to oblige. In exchange for new open markets, cheap labor, and natural resources (minerals). China is the clue to peace on the peninsula, not the US.

  3. JC,

    I'm a new reader of your blog, and I have many "newbie" questions. With regards to the post above,

    1. What is your reason for considering the NK point of conflict only leaving out others, such as Taiwan, South China Seas conflicting territorial claims, Chinese naval expansion, friction and economic war between China and Japan, etc?

    2. "The realignment of global governance structures is taking place as powerful international players grind and push against one another like tectonic plates." Question: On several occasions, the risk of nuclear conflict has been high (Cuban Missile Crisis, etc.), and the potential for such remains high (possible nuclear arms race in the Middle East, possible conflict between India and Pakistan, etc.). Are TPTB Russian Roulette players, as they direct the changes you discuss here, taking such risks, or is "the hidden hand" always maneuvering to keep things sane?




    "In an article headlined "The five key questions facing the AIIB", the state-run Outlook magazine said yesterday that the biggest unanswered question about the bank was what currency - or currencies - would be used for settlement. The article said there were three options: the yuan, the US dollar or an AIIB currency basket."

    An AIIB basket? What could be in that, I wonder?

    1. It is absurd to think or even mention that the US$ would be involved.
      Some of the transactions might be done in trade, as in goods for services.
      The AIIB and other countries currency swaps and trade deals are running away not toward the ever printing US $.
      O's Asian pivot is becoming his divot..
      Unless Tpp is fast tracked it will sink in the Pacific.

        1. Don't bet on it. Even if it gets through the dysfunctional paid off congress.
          Not one foreign country is fully on board, not even Japan.
          Asian countries are making their own free trade deals which will weaken if not make the TPP meaningless even if it comes about.
          By NAU, do you mean the North American Union? If so, this is passe. A changing world and China have seen to that. Asia and Eurasia are the growth, energy, and labor engines. Not Detroit. Big money left here long ago, never ever to return.
          Wait till you see the flood gates open to new membership in the SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
          Western global hegemony is being challenged at every chokepoint.
          It is only a matter of time.
          TICK TOCK!

      1. Actually I am glad that the US..the country I live in and love is going this way. Maybe we can get back to building our nation again. I read a lot about China and their problems as well and they are not devoid of trials that is for sure. So it isn't all roses there either.

    1. I believe it is all in the plan.. The regional trading blocs are all lining up. Eurasia, Asean, the African Union.. and others and then comes the North American Union. I have listened to the audio tapes from the Council on Foreign Relations..the NAU is a done deal. It is just going to be hard to get the Canadians and the Americans to accept it as a concept, but it is me.

      1. I agree the US hegemony is a done deal. Yes, power has shifted it always does just as JC has said. So.. at what time will all this explode in your face. Man is corrupt and it will be only a matter of time.

  5. Looking forward to hearing your input on investment options in the next few weeks as stated in your previous blog. Hoping it comes out soon since China is in "the home stretch" according to recent articles!

  6. Excellent article. So much to absorb n keep track throughout the world is difficult. One thing is certain, profound change is taking place and at this time, the Bear n Dragon is much more adept in dealing with the West. So called ISIS is a manufactured entity from covert opps funded by, hmmm... All about creating turmoil n war as the inevitable occurs. The Western Hegemony is dying on the vine. Time will tell...

    P.S. Who is playing the better chess game and still avert physical war.

    Food for thought.


    Don't be surprised if the the SDR rejiggerring is delayed into 2016 or even later. Forget about the whole 5 year cycle. The Central Bankers are playing a dangerous game here. All the E-trade babies and financial professionals are going to front run them. Brings to mind the first planet visited by the Endurance in Interstellar, the one with the apparently shallow ocean. Well central bank policy is a lot like the black hole Gargantua, engendering huge tidal waves of one-sided trades. Everybody gets complacent then uh-oh.

  8. Dottie,

    Corruption abounds...

    I admire the magic wand you possess to interpret. Your comment re: Jim Willie exhibits a bit of naïveté, astounds me. His track record is one to be admired.

    No one has a crystal ball, but he does appear to be close to truth in some respect. I encourage you to research further as we seek the Holy Grail of Truth.

    Why is the EU migrating to the AIIB n many other nations?

    Research beyond main stream.

    To understand man is to know the past.

    Once again, try Charlotte Iserbyte, John Perkins, Fed Reserve history, WW1, WW2, Korea, Vietnam, Grenada, Iraq, 911 fiasco, today's central banks, then you may understand the dynamic of Ukraine, Crimea, Nicaragua canal, Yemen, Congo, S. America, BRICS, Turkey, Iran n all the contracts dealing outside the U.S influence.

    Why is the U.S. spending time n resources in Iran n Cuba?

    Possibly the Russo n China deals recently acquired.

    The pipelines skirting the Ukraine to EU, the pipelines moving through Turkey n much more.

    No one knows all, but some still see the writing on the wall...

    Best always,

    1. make me laugh. I never use mainstream..are you kidding? I don't follow financial analysts either; they always have an ulterior motive it seems. You just continue to follow Jim Willis if you want..I have found nothing much that he is ever predicted to be true. I will stick to JC. I read Rickards once in a while, but I don't consider it the gospel. Just as I don't consider as I said, any analyst to be the gospel. I don't trust them; they have a financial interest in putting out their predictions.

      There is a reason I am on here, because JC is most always spot on and I feel that he has integrity and doesn't put out garbage.

      1. Back in 2013 Willie..sorry made an error above..predicted gold would go to 7000 dollars an ounce and silver 250.. how did that go? Just saying, I don't follow any of these that make these predictions. I mean someone sees that and says.. hey, I trust him so I will buy lots of gold and then guess what this never happens. They have been duped. Like I said you follow who you want.. I don't care. I will follow JC and a couple of others that are not analysts..Have a great day.

  9. Isn't it kind of sad that the cultivation of the next genereation of debt slaves is sold to us as 'declining income inequality'? Or would this next round of wealth distribution be an oportunity to create some positive wealth?

    "Over the next two decades the structure of world population and income will undergo profound changes. Global income inequality is projected to decline further in 2035, largely owing to rapid economic growth in the emerging-market economies. The potential pool of consumers worldwide will expand significantly, with the largest net gains in the developing and emerging-market economies.

    The number of people earning between US$1,144 and US$3,252 per year in 2013 prices in purchasing power parity terms will increase by around 500 million, with the largest gains in Sub-Saharan Africa and India; those earning between US$3,252 and US$8,874 per year in 2013 prices will increase by almost 1 billion, with the largest gains in India and Sub-Saharan Africa; and those earning more than US$8,874 per year will increase by 1.2 billion, with the largest gains in China and the advanced economies."

    Full report on:

  10. Interesting statement by mr. Blancard of the IMF at the very end of the WEO press conference:

    "The second point is that, looking at the rest of the Eurozone, the rest of the Eurozone is in a better position to deal with the Greek exit. Some of the firewalls which were not there earlier are there. Still, it will not be smooth sailing, but it could probably be done. The third is that if that were to happen, I think the way to reassure markets and make progress is actually go further, use the opportunity to make progress in terms of the fiscal union and the political union. This would be clearly the right moment to do it."


    Li Keqiang: " I do not want to see the yuan continues to depreciate, because we can not rely on devaluation to stimulate exports, does not focus on expanding domestic demand, otherwise it is difficult to get China's economic structure adjustment. Or companies can not just rely mainly on devaluation to increase exports, but should practice "Strength" to make their product innovation, quality big improvement. On the other hand, we also hope the major economies to strengthen macroeconomic policy coordination, we do not want to see the state of competitive devaluation occurs, it will be the currency war, forcing the devaluation, and I think this result to the world's financial system is not a good. May eventually lead to trade protectionism and hinder the process of globalization, which is that we do not want to see...And I want to emphasize, Asian investment bank and the Asian Development Bank are parallel to promote Asian development, we advocate the establishment of this bank is not to reinvent the wheel, the international financial system should be a supplement. China to maintain the current international financial system, and are willing to do one of the builders. If the system needs reform, China is willing to work with other countries to jointly promote this system more fair, reasonable, balanced direction".

    He knows the rest of the developed world can't tolerate higher interest rates, but he's positioning China's policy stance to deflect blame when it goes from exporting deflation to inflation. It will be painful for us Westerners for a few years, but just think once the debt burden has been inflated away, we can go back to living.

    1. The US has to jump in with the change or be left behind when it comes to trade as much as I hate to say it..TPP has to pass. Globalization is a fact, denying it doesn't change things, so I guess to compete we have to go with the flow.This was a good article; I can't say that all the facts are accurate although they seem to be, but few know exactly what is in the TPP, so we can only go on what others say.

      1. Dottie, I agree with you on the TPP. It will happen. It may not happen based on the existing version, but it will happen and will integrate within the larger macro architecture. None of these agreements are being developed or implemented in a vacuum. Good solid reasoning on your part.

      1. Thank you Dane.. I will check it out. Yes, sounds like it would be the AIIB. And thank you JC for your response to my post. You have helped give me the pieces to the puzzle. I have provided some of your information to a BRICS fb group. Some read and understand and some don't read and continue on with the BRICS fantasy.

  12. Interesting stats...

    I believe it refers to slavery...

    No Matter Who Wins The White House, The New Boss Will Be The Same As The Old Boss
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/16/2015 22:30 -0400

    Afghanistan Corruption ETC FBI First Amendment Gallup Google Iraq Nielsen Reality White House

    Submitted by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “What the government is good at is collecting taxes, taking away your freedoms and killing people. It’s not good at much else.”—Author Tom Clancy
    The American people remain eager to be persuaded that a new president in the White House can solve the problems that plague us. Yet no matter who wins this next presidential election, you can rest assured that the new boss will be the same as the old boss, and we - the permanent underclass in America - will continue to be forced to march in lockstep with the police state in all matters, public and private.

    Indeed, as I point out in my new book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, it really doesn’t matter what you call them - the 1%, the elite, the controllers, the masterminds, the shadow government, the police state, the surveillance state, the military industrial complex - so long as you understand that no matter which party occupies the White House in 2017, the unelected bureaucracy that actually calls the shots will continue to do so.

    Consider the following a much-needed reality check, an antidote if you will, against an overdose of overhyped campaign announcements, lofty electoral promises and meaningless patriotic sentiments that land us right back in the same prison cell.

    FACT: For the first time in history, Congress is dominated by a majority of millionaires who are, on average, fourteen times wealthier than the average American. According to a scientific study by Princeton researchers, the United States of America is not the democracy that it purports to be, but rather an oligarchy, in which “economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy.”

    FACT: “Today, 17,000 local police forces are equipped with such military equipment as Blackhawk helicopters, machine guns, grenade launchers, battering rams, explosives, chemical sprays, body armor, night vision, rappelling gear and armored vehicles,” reports Paul Craig Roberts, former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury. “Some have tanks.”

    FACT: Thanks to an overabundance of 4,500-plus federal crimes and 400,000-plus rules and regulations, it is estimated that the average American actually commits three felonies a day without knowing it. In fact, according to law professor John Baker, “There is no one in the United States over the age of 18 who cannot be indicted for some federal crime. That is not an exaggeration.”

    FACT: The number of violent crimes in the country is down substantially, the lowest rate in forty years, while the number of Americans being jailed for nonviolent crimes such as driving with a suspended license is skyrocketing.

    FACT: Despite the fact that women only make up 8 percent of the prison population, they are more likely to be strip searched, though not more likely to carry contraband.

    FACT: Despite the fact that we have 46 million Americans living at or below the poverty line, 16 million children living in households without adequate access to food, and at least 900,000 veterans relying on food stamps, enormous sums continue to be doled out for presidential vacations ($16 million for trips to Africa and Hawaii), overtime fraud at the Department of Homeland Security (nearly $9 million in improper overtime claims, and that’s just in six of the DHS’ many offices)HurricaHur, and Hollywood movie productions ($10 million was spent by the Army National Guard on Superman movie tie-ins aimed at increasing awareness about the National Guard).

    FACT: Since 2001 Americans have spent $10.5 million every hour for numerous foreign military occupations, including in Iraq and Afghanistan. There’s also the $2.2 million spent every hour on maintaining the United States’ nuclear stockpile, and the $35,000 spent every hour to produce and maintain our collection of Tomahawk missiles. And then there’s the money the government exports to other countries to support their arsenals, at the cost of $1.61 million every hour for the American taxpayers.

    FACT: It is estimated that 2.7 million children in the United States have at least one parent in prison, whether it be a local jail or a state or federal penitentiary, due to a wide range of factors ranging from overcriminalization and surprise raids at family homes to roadside traffic stops.

    FACT: At least 400 to 500 innocent people are killed by police officers every year. Indeed, Americans are now eight times more likely to die in a police confrontation than they are to be killed by a terrorist. Americans are 110 times more likely to die of foodborne illness than in a terrorist attack.

    FACT: Police officers are more likely to be struck by lightning than be made financially liable for their wrongdoing.

    FACT: On an average day in America, over 100 Americans have their homes raided by SWAT teams.There has been a notable buildup in recent years of SWAT teams within non-security-related federal agencies such as the Department of Agriculture, the Railroad Retirement Board, the Tennessee Valley Authority, the Office of Personnel Management, the Consumer Product Safety Commission, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and the Education Department.

    FACT: The FBI’s Next Generation Identification (NGI) facial recognition system, which is set to hold data on millions of Americans, will include a variety of biometric data, including palm prints, iris scans, and face recognition data. The FBI hopes to have 52 million images by 2015. NGI will be capable of uploading 55,000 images a day, and conducting tens of thousands of photo searches a day.

    FACT: Comprising an $82 billion industry, at least 30,000 drones are expected to occupy U.S. airspace by 2020.

    FACT: Devices are now being developed that would allow police to stop a car remotely, ostensibly to end police chases.

    FACT: Everything we do will eventually be connected to the Internet. By 2030 it is estimated there will be 100 trillion sensor devices connecting human electronic devices (cell phones, laptops, etc.) to the Internet. Much, if not all, of our electronic devices will be connected to Google, which openly works with government intelligence agencies.

    FACT: In 2015 mega-food corporations will begin rolling out high-tech shelving outfitted with cameras in order to track the shopping behavior of customers, as well as information like the age and sex of shoppers.

    FACT: If knowledge is power, it’s no wonder Americans are in hot water. According to a study by the National Constitution Center, 41 percent of Americans “are not aware that there are three branches of government, and 62 percent couldn’t name them; 33 percent couldn’t even name one.”

    FACT: The United States is one of the highest TV viewing nations. According to a Nielsen report, the average American over the age of two “spends more than thirty-four hours a week watching live television . . . plus another three to six hours watching taped programs.”

    FACT: Only six out of every one hundred Americans know that they actually have a constitutional right to hold the government accountable for wrongdoing, as guaranteed by the right to petition clause of the First Amendment.

    FACT: According to a Gallup poll, Americans place greater faith in the military and the police than in any of the three branches of government. However, when asked to name the greatest problem facing the nation, Americans of all political stripes ranked the government as the number one concern. In fact, almost eight out of ten Americans believe that government corruption is widespread.

    Perhaps the most troubling fact of all is this: we have handed over control of our government and our lives to faceless bureaucrats who view us as little more than cattle to be bred, branded, butchered and sold for profit.

  13. Off the topic of Asia, here is some food for thought about the Yemen proxy war. There is a Joint Defense Arab League (JDAL) recently launched which is like the NATO of the Mid East (and twice the size). It includes troops from Egypt, Morrocco, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Quarar, Jordan and others. It will be used to combat "terrorist groups" and can be deployed upon command from any of the member countries with a majority vote. It is an extension of the GCC, thus a regional security force. (Regional dinar coming soon!)

    Meanwhile, the US has been sending aid and arms to the Kurdistan's Peshmerga forces in Iraq to fight ISIS and recently aided in the libiration of a major city, Tikrit, via air strike. The US and Iraq have a Strategic Framework Agreement to withdraw US troops (2011) and maintain friendly trade relations and joint cooperation. Now, the US can be invited in as a partner to help combat "terrorism". Since the US supports the Kurds and want to protect and get their share of wealth from the oil credits and contracts within Iraq while combating any opposition, they can arm Kurds (who are a more of a tribal peoples) living in Iraq, Syria, and Iran to fight ISIS/L and Shia Malitia forces with support from the Joint Arab Defence League to concour Assad's regime and build a pipeline into Europe through the Mid East.

    With Iran, the Nuclear Deal is a moot point, and imo is for show. Iran will be the last Domino to fall before the US and their European allies have, by proxy, a continued stronger hold on the Mid East and their resources/ policies.

    Yemen is being used for this JADL to roll out and begin unifying the member nation's fight against "rebel terrorists". I imagine they will use this force in Syria and Iran along with Kurdish fighters.

    The Saudi's have been stocking up for a while on arms purchasing as the JDAL may reside in their country. They are still very much allies with the US as they continue to do quite a bit of business together.

    Iran's central bank is currently not controlled by a Rosthchild agency.

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