Crypto Market will Swallow Gold Market in 2019

JcollinsFREEPOM38 Comments

Will Gold Return to Pre-2008 Prices in the Sub-$800 Range?

JC Collins

According to the World Gold Council, as of the end of 2017 total gold market capitalization was around $7.8 trillion. The current value of gold is $1215USD/oz.  Besides some ups and downs, the value has remained unchanged since the summer of 2013. The stagnation in the gold market could be an indicator of a lot of different things, but it does stand in contrast to the predicted boom which many were sure would accompany the Fed's normalization of monetary policy.

We are now a few years into this monetary normalization and the gold market is still as stagnate as it's been for the last 5 years. This does not bode well for gold as the world is on the threshold of a new asset class exploding in capitalization.  At the last ATH (all-time high) in January of 2018, the total crypto market capitalization reached just over $800 billion.  This is small compared to the $7.8 trillion gold market, but consider that massive institutional investment hasn't even entered the crypto market yet.

As American GDP continues to grow, and it will, alongside global GDP for numerous reasons which I will review in another forthcoming article, it will become apparent to most investors that the Fed's normalization of monetary policy, being interest rate increases and a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet, will not have the long-predicted impact on inflation, and in turn gold valuations.  This is something I have accurately predicted since 2014.

We could, in fact, see gold return to pre-financial crisis prices in the sub-$800 range.  The lack of growth in the gold market for the last 5 years should be an indicator to most investors that demand for the precious metal is lackluster at best.  Though nations such as China and Russia have continued to accumulate gold, there will be no new gold standard based on a gold-backed yuan or ruble.  Gold standards are deflationary by nature and most nations now understand that a new global standard is being built around the speed, cost, and scalability of the crypto market.  Both Russia and China are building their own internal architectures to connect with this worldwide crypto ecosystem.

No nations, banks, or institutions will be interested in turning back the clocks on technology, and a whole new source of liquidity, just to accommodate a gold market which will be swallowed by the new asset class within the next 12 to 18 months. For sure there will always be gold, but the gold market itself will become a sub-market to the crypto market in the same fashion that the stock and bond markets will eventually become sub-markets as well. Analysts who do not understand what I just stated do not understand the totality of what is happening in the crypto market. Period. They will be leading their clients in the wrong direction.

Most think of Bitcoin when the crypto market is mentioned.  Even with just that, there is a shocking lack of understanding by traditional old-school analysts and financial advisors around Bitcoin and what it actually is.  Attempting to explain that Bitcoin's throne will soon be usurped by the digital asset XRP is simply too much for these analysts to understand.  Add in the concept of the Internet of Value, micropayments, smart contracts, and Ripple's Interledger Protocol, alongside how Mojaloop is going to give 2 billion people in emerging markets access to the global system of banking and commerce for the first time, and it becomes apparent that any predictions and conclusions which do not factor in the above will be disastrously wrong.

This September will likely mark the turn in the current crypto bear market and a new bull market will take off with massive institutional investment in Bitcoin ETF's and hundreds of exchanges.  These exchanges have spent most of 2018 building and strengthening their systems to accommodate the millions upon millions of investors who will flood into the crypto market. Capital will be sucked out of the gold market and into the exploding crypto market.

The price of gold is not the real story here, whether its $800 or $1800.  The real story is the rise of a whole new asset class which will serve as a new source of global liquidity.  The existing $7.8 trillion gold market will be completely inundated by the crypto market as it expands across all financial sectors and within all financial products. Nothing will stop it.

There is much to learn and share regarding crypto investment opportunities and the geopolitical ramifications around the development of a new global standard.  Please consider subscribing to Philosophy of Metrics for full access to all articles and content.  This will support my research and writing on these important topics.  Monthly and Yearly subscriptions are the best we have right now, but as an example of how things are going to change, the micropayments industry which is being built around XRP will be embedded in your browser and you will just pay for an article that you click on. No more clunky subscriptions.  You pay for a click and a read.  But for the time being, your support is appreciated.  - JC

JC Collins can be contacted at jcollins@philosophyofmetrics.com

This article is copyrighted by POM Media©2018. As non-Premium content, it can be shared and reposted without further permission.

 

38 Comments on “Crypto Market will Swallow Gold Market in 2019”

  1. in 2015 I was with you with Trump will win.

    The price of gold does not change, it's the value of the dollar that goes up and down in respect to the gold priced in dollars. Dollar value down , gold value up and vice versa.

    How can American exports compete internationally when it's value is high(Triffin paradox)?

    Perhaps trade tariffs?

  2. JC,
    I personally think it is going to be hard to predict where the liquidity will come from. It could be stocks, bonds, commodities, FX, etc. But, as you know, I definitely agree with you that XRP will turn out to be the replacement for BitCoin because everything about it is better. And, it solves a big problem by moving money/value quickly and affordably. Once the crypto market starts to stabilize, money will start flowing into it. Once the money spigot gets flowing to go LONG XRP (not SHORT), the gains will be substantial. In my opinion of course.
    Best,
    RJZ33

  3. I'm not sure JC meant it will replace gold RJZ. I think he means that the majority of investors who sought safe haven for their investments in gold will move over to the crypto world with their money. It makes sense if they are invested in gold to keep their investments safe for the wild west time frame. Now that they see regulation being put in place their hunger to make money will draw them out of gold and into the new crypto market in hopes to make a buck. They just needed the confidence that regulation would protect them or they think that regulation in place means its a safe investing...world or ecosystem. Of course as demand moves from gold to cryptos the value of gold would naturally drop.

    What's really fun to think about is what if it does this from ALL of the markets you listed? 🙂

    1. Dane,
      I agree. If Gold continues to languish and potentially go down and cryptos start to go up, certainly a portion of those investors will potentially move over. I think that narrative will be the same in other markets as well especially if regulation comes in, exchanges get more secure, trading is easier where fiat money is more readily accepted, more regions get approved, etc. in the crypto market. I just think it is hard to predict that the Crypto market will swallow gold market in 2019. I'm not saying it won't. JC has been right way too many times. I'm just saying that it could come from any or all of the markets. Not just gold. Could be silver, real estate, natural gas, whatever. It just depends on where the hedge fund and institutional investors decide to move their money and how they are going to rebalance their portfolios. But, it will happen. Money will flow to crypto market. Just a matter of when, not if. Stay well, RJZ33

        1. Dane,
          It is a brave new world. I'm so glad I found this site. I would never have known about the unipolar to multilateral agenda and Ripple. JC has enlightened us all on that as well as so many other things. This transition going forward will be interesting to watch. FYI...I'll let everyone know when I think I see an uptrend in the XRP price charts. Best, RJZ33

      1. Dang, what a gamble. Couldn't risk my humble castle or man cave to put a few bucks in my pocket. But I'm glad the dude made out okay. Sends a dangerous message to the greedy though doesn't it?

  4. Indeed! Coil will shape the new internet experience you describe in the final paragraph. Until then I am happy to support with annual subscription JC 🙂

  5. A while ago our beloved Pieter told us about a dream he had the night before were two sets of numbers came to him. They were 333 and 999, if I am not mistaken. I recall I made an attempt at interpreting the dream by suggesting that 333 may be related to the price of XRP and 999 may mean in October which is the 9th months, things in relation to XRP may explode or we may experience a bull run!

    Since last night I have been waiting for the prices to go lower and even hoping it will go to 333, right now, I am seeing 3333/33xx but the important part is a 3 repeated 3 times! This morning, I bought a small amount of XRP when it was 35 cents. So that half of Pieter's dream is now manifested, let us hope that the second part of it to materialize also in October! That is it gets to $10 or $9.99. Should that happen, POM will have her own Edgar Cayce reincarnated as our own Dearest Pieter. On a serious note, this is very spooky indeed as I never ever thought I would see this figure as 0.3333, I just can't believe it...Thanks, Pieter. Hope the rest of your dream comes true. LOL 🙂

    1. Hello AlyssaUnbound,

      I agree, "Predictions make fools of us all". However, this is what we all like to do, otherwise what is the point of hoarding such virtual assets?!

      In any case, according to this guy on YT (if you can trust anyone on YT!) The XRP price in the next Bull run, will be $33.93 (curiously similar to the dream figure!!).
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8cMvtUzceQ&t=1s

      Personally, I am not a fan of his methodology for arriving at a prediction price but that's all we've got plus the human gift of Hope.

      Wish you and every POM family to be super rich and I keep all my fingers crossed and hopefully for not too long 🙂

  6. Yeah, yeah, yeah, and yeah, yeah, yeah. When are ya'all gonna realize gold ain't worth nothin' past it's shine and the fever it sets in the mind and hearts of men. Oh sure it used to have a degree of value back in the day. Today, not so much. Beyond it's place of wrath and tears looms but the horrors of the shade. Paper replaced it centuries ago, so today I say there is no way it can compete with digital and blockchain. I mean really what the hell does it really mean in that market. Not much I say not much at all. Oh sure it is rare a wonderful conductor,and one can pound it down thin as a blond hair and make all kinds of beautiful pieces of art out of it. But as a financial instrument in this day and age,,, get the #@&^ out of here.

    If I didn't say so, so I say it now,` gold should of lost most of its value to the sea bitch, and l bless her black heart, that hag should of taught mankind then and there that gold is not a rate of exchange. The greedy bastards, my beloved pirates sent as much to ,my beloved sea bitch with their overloaded vessels than man could count. We are. We are, not gold , but we are` the rate of exchange. We may struggle coming to terms with that fact, but we shouldn't, it is a compliment.

    I spent the best part of yesterday morning trying to purchase me some ZERP.
    I decided to try UpHold, it looked like a cool and conventional way to go. I had the best tech team a man like me could possibly muster, a cashier from Safeway(not a bad looking girl, not bad looking at all) and a gamer kid from down the street. We dug in from my dugout and took it from step, one to Auty2, took pictures of me and my brand new AZ state issued I.D. and sent them on, they accepted, so I saw the ZERP at .$42 I figure with fees and interest on the C/D 2000 tokens looks like $888,88 to me so I dial it in. Will they take my money? NOPE!! Ok, I really didn't think they would, but it was worth a shot.Other things began to take the day, my sister has a horse to shoe. I can't do that anymore`, but what I can do is prepare the animals hooves for the shoeman. It is just a matter of where- with -all and rasp.

    Done deal, I'm strolling right along, rather easy not troubled by much going on in my day, should have peaceful nights rest. And I did. Who ha I wake in the morn to find MY ZERP at $.35 headed to the master metric $.333./ Mind you I still have not bought the first %&$#@#* token. And at this point I've had just about enough, I got a birthday coming up 9/17. My current intention is to set
    my Binance/Changelly exchanges up to do my business offload my purchase to a Ledger Nano s using names and numbers for passwords from the KJV and the day the numbers began.

    I just can't see a better path for myself from here.

    PTM

  7. As far as JC's prediction, gold is certainly in an aggressive downtrend currently and it has a lot of room to drop. So, from a traders/investors standpoint, his prediction does have the strong potential of happening. Quite frankly, that money is moving somewhere as we speak since gold is in an aggressive downtrend. It might just be going to a cash horde waiting for the bottom to occur in the crypto market? If so, JC will be spot-on. And, the crypto market will swallow (or take a huge bite out of) the gold market in 2019!! I am certainly hoping so!! I'm just waiting for the shorters to stop shorting XRP and start going long. Once seen, I am in!!! So excited!!!
    Cheers! RJZ333

  8. JC ,

    This is an explosive statement! Overall, I have no doubt about the soundness of the analysis, but I think it will take much longer to get there. In my view, it is clear that:
    - Somewhere in 2019 we will see a flow of liquidity to the cryptos market, but I don't see a rapid saturation and vertical rise of the main cryptos in 2019. I'm thinking more of a rise step by step ,, without any major excitement, for several reasons.
    - All markets are overvalued, and are likely to correct next year. There is a bubble in the US markets, which is backed up by a shrinking number of stocks.
    - Yields pressures can lead to this correction of markets, but as always the Fed will do its utmost to avoid a crash, and a massive liquidity leak. - Over the next 6 to 12 months, as long as the indexes and Bonds maintain their trajectory, we should attend a discreet, slow and progressive entry of Big Money into the cryptos market. It 's only when they will reach their quotas that the real increase will take hold. Big Money wants to buy a big share of the market first. This does not mean that all cryptos will continue to fall sharply. I believe that a discreet entry of Big Money will create a floor by December 2018 and then will double the value of the main cryptos from the lowest point to be achieved in the coming months. But I do not imagine XRP reaching and exceeding 1$ next year. Good and Perfect if I am wrong!
    In fact I think by the end of 2018 we should see the end of crypto-bear market, and 2019 will be the transition year to give in 2020 -2021 the real rise and definitive adoption of the blockchain revolution and the real price increase of the main cryptos.
    About the price of Gold, current stagnation implies de facto a risk of falling prices, at least in $. It's quite logical, because the price of the $ is inversely correlated with gold.
    From a chartist point of view, regardless of asset class, the bursting of a bubble very often leads to a return of prices to the starting point of vertical increase. The faster the increase, the greater the risk of a return to the starting point. This was the case with the Nasdaq 100 between 1997 and 2002, the case for gold between 1978 and 1985. There are many examples. The 2008 crisis led to a bubble on gold and prices must return to the area of around $ 800 to complete the current cycle. I am OK with you when you say that there will be an transfert of gold flows towards the crypto market , but it should be a partial transfer as there will always be goldbugs seeing gold as the ultimate insurance , especially if there is a period of chaos on the international markets, for a few months, following the various factors of tension, geopolitical or commercial.
    I am not analyst and I am not able to explain correctly, what I feel, but there have been several catalysts that accelerated bear markets between 2000 and 2002, or during the 2008-2009 financial crisis , and I believe that these over-valued markets are increasingly at the mercy of one or more catalysts and strong turbulences between 2019 and 2020. If this were confirmed, we could witness the end of gold's bear market on the $ 800 area all along the take off of the best cryptos for a new bull market, until the next major excitement. to create another crypto-bubble around 2025
    Basically, I think once again the time will prove you right, but with some more time to reach that goal , between 2020-2021.
    Just my two cents , nothing more.....

  9. I, too, am grateful for my subscription to this publication as I would never have known about the current rise of the crypto market and it's role in global economics.
    Though I'm still having difficulty in understanding the intricacies of investing in XRP , there are other questions foremost in my mind regarding The Federal Reserve's involvement in all of this since they seem to control the money supply . How will the global elitist who control the Central Banks continue to amass their fortunes if they can no longer print money out of thin air, loan it out and collect the interest on it ?
    I would love your take on this, J.C. You might have already commented on this topic and I have, somehow, missed it.

  10. JC, Fascinating post as always and you may well be correct but the downturn in all Cryptos has been far more severe than anything we have seen in Gold. From its peak in 2011 to its last major low in late 2015, Gold lost around 45% of its value which is significant but this also took 4 years in the making.

    BitCoin and other cryptos have lost 70% to 90%+ of their value from their peak in just around 6 months which is much more severe by anyones measure. Ripple (XRP) has now lost over 93% of its value since its peak at $3.84 -- Ouch! How can Crypto's be trusted as a "store of value" with such wild swings? I hope you will answer, as I believe this is a fair question.

    While I do plan to start nibbling at hopefully what should be a bottom soon over the next several weeks, risk management, suggests that investments in this area be limited so that one does not put all ones eggs in one basket, especially since no-one really know when or where they will bottom and the swings can be so severe.

    Your thoughts & comments?

    1. Look at the crypto market over the same 4 years as the gold market and you’ll see that the crypto market has gained a tremendous amount of value over the same time period. It’s undeniable, and it’s only the beginning. Don’t worry about the bear market right now. The crypto market does this on a regular cycle and new all time highs are reached with each new bull market. It’s the birth pains of a new asset class.

  11. The quantity of XRP coins is fixed. Bitcoin is fairly fixed but has a slow growth until no more can be mined. Ethereum is growing a bit faster than Bitcoin but it too will slow until it finally comes to a stop.

    So the quantity of coins is a solid almost fixed number within the valuation formula. I believe that a coin market cap is a product of the number of coins multiplied by the unit value of a coin so it is fixed also although that fixed amount varies dependent on the unit cost. This puts a lot of emphasis on the unit cost doesn’t it? The unit cost is the deciding variable in the formula.

    So how is the unit cost determined? From what I have found the unit cost of a coin is based on the amount someone is willing to sell it at. This perplexed me for a while, because I could not figure out a reason why someone would want to sell it below the current market price. Then it hit me. Who would gain by selling their coin at a discount price? Someone who betted on a short of the coin value perhaps?

    If so how could this play out? I tinkered in my mind for a bit and came up with a hypothesis. Perhaps one could buy futures to sell at a certain price…presumably below market value in a bear market and bet on that short to have an overall gain. But how would it work?

    So say I had a bunch of coin, a futures contract to sell at a given unit value (below market cost), and I’ve bet on the short of a coins value. Now I know when my future contract is coming to term so if I worked out the ratios correctly I could in theory sell my bunch of coin below market cost just prior to the term of my futures contract to force the market down which would trigger my futures sell off which would force the value down even more and in turn pay off on the short bet. The ratio would have to be such that the short bet would gain enough to cover the loss on the bunch of coin discount sell, the loss on futures sale and put a profit in my pocket. Now if my future contract coin purchase price was a lower price than the future contract sale amount that could help absorb the initial loss on the bunch of coin discount sell off.

    If someone had enough money to tinker with something of this sort would it be possible? If not why and what is in place to guard against something of this sort?

  12. It seems that we are now entering the Panic Sell Off Zone in the cryptos market , the opposite side of the Excess Optimism Zone from 9 months ago .
    This should normally be the best moment to buy , in small doses , as nobody knows where is the real bottom . If I am right , it should be done in the next two weeks , and only a part of all this crypto world should survive to the purge .
    Then , formation of a base during a few months , and a take off in 2019......

    Time will tell.....!

  13. Hello ,

    Just want to post two links .
    The first one about Ripple and XRP . Nothing new , and I think there's already some articles about the distinction between Ripple and XRP :

    https://hackernoon.com/ripple-not-a-cryptocurrency-afc5e9248c4c

    The second link is more interesting . Apparently , the World Bank is about to create the first global blockchain bond , in partnership with Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
    Slowly , but surely , we can witness signs of a future emerging trend , the beginning of the blockchain adoption by the behemoth of the financial and economic system .

    https://hackernoon.com/the-first-global-blockchain-bond-38952bdf1dac

    1. Ledude, I expect more of a V-shaped recovery. So the bull market takes off within this year (late Q3 or early Q4). But your guess is as good as mine!
      And thanks for the links!

      1. Hi Redjon ,

        Hope your're right ! I also do prefer a V-shape recovery , but I am not sure of it .
        Why ?
        Because of a shrinking global liquidity due to the rise of the USD , and the beginning of a turmoil in the forex markets. This is a risk that portends a crash or at minima a breakdown in the global stocks markets , for a few months . It should not last , but during this phase , everything will be sold , even an already oversold crypto market .
        There is too many imbalances in these global markets which need to be adressed . We have already seen this kind of behaviour during the 1997 -98 Asian financial crisis and the LTCM failure , who led to the first massive Fed intervention .
        Times have changed and history doesn't repeat in the same way , but it sure rhythms.

        Anyway , if this happen , it will be good for XRP and some of the best cryptos in the long term , as most people will realize how fragile are the currencies and financial markets.

        Wish you the best , for you and all of the POM readers !

  14. I wrote this long-winded reply to a friend who was asking what to make of the recent Turko-American spat, which I thought may be of interest at least from a background crisis and any potential outcomes and it is perhaps related to the subject of XRP and money in general.

    First, we must consider some facts about the Turkish Republic which is around 100 (hundred) years old and it emerged from what was left of the vast Ottoman empire which was a predominantly Sunni Islamic empire that emerged from 1500 to the end of the WW I (First world war). The Ottoman Turkic rulers defeated Byzantium (Constantinople or the modern Istanbul) in the summer of 1453 after a bloody siege and the three days of rape, pillage and death of the last Orthodox Christian empire.

    After the WWI, the Ottomans lost much of it's territory to the British and the French and from the lost lands, nations as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and few other minor nations emerged. In fact, the new nations that came into existence were created by the Brits and the French under the Sykes-Picot accord. If you look at the map of these countries, you will notice the borders are straight lines, which is the result of the Geopolitical officers of the British mainly and the French generals that drew these lines with good old, rulers that we all used in school. These nations are associated with, "A line in the sand" since the generals literally drew the map and demarcation of the new Middle-East on the sand during the breaks in negotiations. It was decided that the new ethnicity of the new Middle-EAst should be given to the "Arabs" since the British had already cultivated a long-standing relationship with the Arab Beduin leaders and unsurprisingly, A nation was named after one of these families, that is the Al-Saud family. In this way, Saudi Arabia is the only country on earth that is named after a clan! Had the Rotchilds been the ruling clan of the Arabs, the country would have been called, Rothchildistan,...maybe!

    The modern Turkish republic came existence around the early 1920's with the help of an Ottoman general by the name of Mustapha Kemal Pasha later given the title "Ata Turk" meaning the father of the Turks. The Turkish Republic until the late 1980's remained very secular and but with machinations by the globalists and their favouritism of Islamism as a favoured tool of subjugation at the end of the 1970's, Turkey began leaning towards Islamism. Mr Rejeb Erdogan, the current president is an Islamist but the CIA have been sponsoring another super-Islamist old man named "Fettulah Gulen" (possibly as a backup in Pennsylvania!) who is behind much of the Sunni Islamist movements and educating/terrorism training (brainwashing better said!) of a whole generation of Muslims across the planet. The Christian priest that is in a Turkish prison is said to be possibly a CIA asset that is imprisoned by Erdogan since he was (allegedly) behind the coup in favour of the super-Islamist Gulen, attempt a couple of years ago! That does not mean Erdogan is an angel by any means, but rather another Islamist who may have gone rogue so the globalists have cultivated another clone possibly more potent than him, ready as a backup!

    Turkish economy and the economic success and boom were engineered by the Globalist west and Turkey sucked most of the investment after the engineered collapse of Imperial Iran. All of this has now halted as the engine of globalism and its power had been stopped. We should also bear in mind that Turkey is the largest Military after the US within the NATO alliance and US military holds atomic weapons and a powerful USAF in several Turkish airbases which were used during the Obama and Clintons and Bush's to destroy the Middle-EAstern nations and to create chaos so to loot and steal and destabilize the entire region and create the engine of migration to invade Europe. One stone to kill hundreds of birds comes to mind! The Libyan escapade was the last and Syrian war played a part in all the disastrous years of the globalists in power where Turkey was a key operative. Therefore, the Turkish Lira and a nation a 43% GDP to debt ratio and it's lending history by the Deutsche Bank with a 50Trillion Dollar loans to Turkey, Italy and other nations now in possible default can and is likely to the collapse of the EU project and the entire Euro monetary system. President Trump is possibly is planning that all these fiat money systems have gone so he can introduce a totally new system. This is now ongoing and therefore, the Turkish Lira and its demise will mean a default to the lender i.e. Deutsche bank which will, in turn, result in the EU to collapse, and this may be the outcome.

    Yesterday Qatar announced helping Turkey by granting a $15Billion to Turkey. The Qataris relationship with Turkey is a very complex in that both of these regimes are supported by the globalist factions in Europe/UK/US and Qatar is the outpost posing as a nation, owned and run by and supported the globalists in EU. Tukey provides military support for the super-rich outpost of a nation, Qatar but US military has some military relationship with Qatar too. It seems that Trump's foreign policy is aimed at dismantling the Qatar-Turkish axis from the EU, and not necessarily aimed at Turkey since Turkey has been a US ally, at least before the Trump's presidency. Turkey is also flirting with Russia and the recent Caspian agreement which Iran and Russia are in, may make Turkey assume a good future in the newly agreed Caspian accord. However, the new Caspian agreement will change once Iran is freed from the hands of the EU backed Mullahs for the simple reason that the Mullahs sold Irans's 50 per cent share of the Caspian in return for backing from the Russians and to many Iranian commentators this is nothing short of treason! What is certain is that all of this hinges on saving Iran from the claws of the NAZI EU. The same attempt is undergoing in relation to Iran that has also an EU backed regime. The aim is to ultimately dismantle the EU and its Sovieteqsque and despotic, neo-colonialist structure. This, I believe is happening and will be successful and hopefully soon! Yesterday, the Trump administration and US State Dept. announced a special action group, "Iran Action Group" to monitor Iran and her activities under the 12 point plan transmitted to the Mullahs.

    Studying all this one remains certain that a systematic and orchestrated attempt at restructuring the world system and a RESET now becomes inevitable. All of the above is directly connected to this RESET that many envisage will come at some point in future...maybe Oct-Nov maybe next year or the year after, but for sure we should expect a major change. Therefore Cryptos, Gold and Silver would be good to hold or 😂 HODL .

    1. Great stuff Carpe Diem, I love the way you combine the history with current developments and a dash of high octane speculation! Fascinating to watch what happens with the lira and wider EM currencies/markets. Yes if this develops into a major EM crisis the dollar could well be on its way to a "blow-off top" before the depreciation that JC has long predicted.

      1. Thank you Dear Redjon,

        I appreciate your kind feedback. Please consider everything I wrote here on POM as speculation only as this is my subjective analysis based on my limited knowledge and observation on nuances of what I read and study. My speculations can only be fine-tuned and to hopefully get closer to the reality of events with the help of all the great people here, such as your good self. I believe POM is a virtual university and I am a student and I learn from every comment as well as the knowledge and insight that our noble JC provides. I really look forward to every day and as much as I can to study the comments and input in this great centre of learning. I absolutely believe that everyone is here to make this world a better place for all people and the only way to prevent wars and achieve this is by being armed with knowledge and to cultivate wisdom.

        God Bless You and every noble member of the POM family.

        1. "CONTAGION: Why Turkey could Gobble Up the World"

          I just watched this excellent presentation by Lynnet Zang of events which may follow from here on in relations to the Turkish financial problems which I can recommend. It seems Turkey is the catalyst for the financial collapse which may open the prospect of a new financial system worldwide!

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8O9UNeJlpoo

  15. "Geopolitical Game Changer: Who Will Putin Choose? - Israel or Iran"

    A while ago, I mentioned, here under one of JC's great article, that "For Russia, the Iran relationship is tactical, not strategic". The Serbian professor of Russian affairs confirms this in the clip. The entire show now depends on which side Iran goes towards. With a secular and democratic regime, there will be every opportunity for all the regional and other nations. With chaos and warfare, not only the region but the entire world will go back to darkness. Yet, it appears that "all the deals, have been done in the background" which may mean the current show is just a show, pure and simple. For Russia, Iran is a competitor, not an ally, because Iran holds both gas and oil possibly equal to Russia and both Iran and Russia would want to sell their earthly merchandise to Europe. Russia can only get by, through subduing Iran to sell her products but more importantly, Iran sits at the most important geopolitical crossroad on the planet and anyone who controls Iran, can also control the world. Yet, history tells us that the geopolitical position that Iran is at, prevents it from exclusive subjugation by any one power, militarily speaking. The EU/UK experiment worked for 3 decades but Iran in this regard was carved up economically to the exclusion of the United States but things are about to change to the favour of the US and Iran. Russia will not be harmed by such relationship but the EU/UK will for sure.

    Russia's natural ally in the region is Isreal as the predecessor to Russia, i.e. the Soviet Union was a founding member of the Republic of Isreal and culturally also the two nations have much in common. I have also heard that the Soviet Union parked much of its Gold reserve in Israel which possibly stands to date. This could be an added incentive for Russia to be best buddies with Israel, although, Israel may become a secular nation without the Political Judaism (Zionism) as its excess baggage, making it a model democracy and possibly a force for good in economy, trade, and culture once the fanaticism of the Islamic world and the Judaic world ceases to eaxist...should I say unfunded to exist! After all, Jews and Arabs are of one Semitic race and have little cultural differences. This also can be beneficial for Russia too. Anyway, just some thoughts on this matter!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q37bdkNJFW4&feature=em-uploademail

    1. Good points CD. Since the world seems to be becoming more fragmented in its outward realm what if Iran would supply Asia with gas and oil and Russia supply the EU? Perhaps Russia would just want to protect its business territory and help push Iran to see Asia as its customer base.

      Israel with Genie Oil now in Golan Heights and seemingly buying up oil fields along the Euphrates River in Syria seems to create a trajectory into Turkey and could project into the south EU region. This would then constrain Russia to the north EU region with their German pipeline deal that Trump exposed. Another consideration is if Genie Oil can get a pipeline of oil up to Turkey they could capture some of the coming New Silk Road business. China is huge she may need multiple oil sources and could pit those sources against each other to garnish the best prices for her petro Yuan.

      Interesting. Just some thinking out loud pal. But business is really weird with the fragmented push and pull of it all.

      David Bohm thought that competition was pervasive. Perhaps he saw this competition as being the common thread that corrupts the spirit of things like communism and capitalism alike. Competition seems to bring out man's will to win at any cost. To win is to consolidate, to consolidate is to bring about a centralized power of sorts which in the business world seems to result in monopolies. So we fragment those monopolies and they come back again and again.

      This process seems to cause a division amongst mankind. Those who have that will to fight to the top without regard of the effects they cause on their fellow man; and those who have the will of personal constraint to be selfish unto themselves trying to live life understanding the effects of their causes and being conscious enough to not impose them upon their fellow man.

      Perhaps mankind is entering into a new phase where these two elements once again find some sense of balance while the world rights itself and heals her wounds. We've certainly pushed her to the breaking point yet again and I'm sure we will again in the future. But for now it sure is great to be alive during this time of finding balance again. Just imagine this time there has been no world war...so far. We are still in that "30% higher probability of war" zone so lets hope we make it through without one, because this would show progress in human evolution from the larger picture of it all wouldn't it?

      Wish you a great day my friend.

  16. Carpe Diem , Dane ,

    I must say I feel blessed to read your posts ,and learn about history , ex-empires and consequences of some decisions and acts from 100 or 200 years ago .
    Even if I knew some elements of history about the end of the ottoman empire and the Sykes Picot accord , I wasn't able to connect all the dots and see the picture so clearly , with all the actual intrications and manoeuvers behind the curtains . So many parameters and actors/countries involved in that game that it's easy to loose the global picture .
    Thanks to you and JC to gather so many great minds in POM community !

    1. Dear Ledude59, Dear Dane,

      Thank you guys and the noble POM family and most of all to our JC who created such a fantastic forum for us all to find each other, to learn and to grow.

      I also wanted to add, that it appears that in the new multipolar world, Russia may be given the control of security and trace aspects of Europe with the exception of the UK (US will take care of the UK and the American continent...posssibly!). In the Near-East region Again Russia will take care of some parts of the region with the exception of Iran. In this context, Israel as a regional military and economic power would naturally fall under Russia's sphere of influence and security.

      What is worrisome in all this is China and the problems which it may cause regarding feeding her population and her attempts at finding energy resources which as a superpower it will be her biggest issue. A superpower without easy access to its own to energy renders that superpower troublesome to other nations. Add to this the water shortage problems and insufficient arable land to feed her massive population. In this regard, the Chinese Government is leasing land and fishing waters as far the Persian Gulf region where it is becoming a serious problem for the seaport natives of Iran where they are complaining of the technics used by the Chinese trawlers, leaving the Iranian fishermen starved of their ancient income! This is another symptom of a super corrupt and absolutely hated Islamist cabal ruling Iran by force. Iranian commentators are now suggesting that the corrupt Mullahs have "leased" several Islands in the Persian Gulf to the Chinese, namely the Kish Island. A while ago, there were rumours of a navy seaport "Chah-bahar" in the southeastern corner of Iran by the Indian Ocean to the Chinese in return for favours, possibly financial or trade. It is, therefore, possible to imagine, that somehow the Chinese influence will become scrutinised as the Chinese now control much of Africa and there are already a huge number of Chinese nationals to have migrated to countries such as Ethiopia where they currently control much of the economy. In the regard, the Chinese never invaded any nation militarily but have moved in with the speed of a turtle in decades. Anyway, again some thoughts on whats going on and my apologies in advance. The following article today caught my attention regarding land lease of Russian land by the Chinese, although the Chinese have similar deals with Vietnam and few other regional nations! Many suggest that Mao Zedong saved the world through his collectivist/communist system, otherwise, the mass starvation of the Chinese would have caused many wars in Asia and the rest of the world!

      I would have only hoped that the fake-stream media would discuss and inform the public instead of the nonstop barrage of insults and slurs at a US president that they do not like. A viable Democracy without a well-informed public always ends in tyranny...

      https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-16/russia-offers-25-million-acres-farmland-china-amid-worsening-trade-war

      1. Hey CD I get what you're laying down pal but keep in mind that the world can sustain us if we are mindful of what we eat and how we go about it.

        For instance check out how China has found a way to farm the desert.

        "China's Greening of the Vast Kubuqi Desert is a Model for Land Restoration Projects Everywhere"

        http://time.com/4851013/china-greening-kubuqi-desert-land-restoration/

        "New technology in China turns desert into land rich with crops"

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cazVrq9v1mE

        "China has found a way to turn deserts into forests"

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9C0_iApuIcU

        "China transforms it's second biggest desert into a fertile oasis"

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRzHa3I4eOQ

        So as long as greed can be kept at bay we may be okay. We just have to make sure we look within ourselves and be the best human beings we can be. Perhaps China will have another Buddha era.

        But it's no different over here in the West is it? I can say I've been hearing from local fishermen that the Mahi Mahi are back in numbers, Pompano can be seen swimming by the docks at our marinas (very unusual) and the lobster season is proving to be very fruitful this year also. Maybe its not quite as apocalyptic as we are led to believe.

        I hope this helps bring some peace to your heart my friend.

        Thank you Ledude, we all make this community the great place it is though. I think JC's lead is what makes it all possible. He has stated how POM has evolved to something he never expected, although I believe he is a man with no expectations I believe POM has taken him for a ride he is grateful for. There is a common thread that runs through POM that is simply genius, I believe this thread of indomitable spirit is what ties us all together.

        1. Well said Dane, yes the negative Malthusian doomer mindset has been proven wrong time and time again. Yet proponents of it still exist and I believe this is largely tied into the AGW movement which as we know enjoys massive funding. What they continually fail to factor in are the effects of ongoing/forthcoming progress and efficiency improvements in food production and land use - thanks for the illustrative links on that. Personally I am of the opinion that we will fly the nest (establish sustainable off-world colonies) long before overpopulation of our home planet becomes a serious issue.

          1. Thanks Redjon, I've seen regulation that seems to encompass off world mining already. Robots could do that rather efficiently I would think. They could be paid in crypto's too 🙂

        2. Thank you Dane,

          And yes, I agree with all the points you raised regarding China and ingenuity of the Chinese as well as the human family. I sincerely hope that the inhabitants of this planet, our home, will be a safe place for all of us and there will be no more wars and injustices.

          I really liked this: "Perhaps China will have another Buddha era." and I hope that for all humanity. In fact, possibly the on;y purpose of life is to evolve and become perfected as spiritual beings. Human beings, as well as nations, share the same evolutionary path and all the trauma we suffer individually and collectively is to direct us toward enlightenment where we finally realize the emptiness and the illusion of this world. Yet, as beings parachuted here, we have duties in creating balance in this domain whilst alive, with the aid of the Free Will to say good and encouraging words, to think well and positively and act in accordance with the good thoughts and positive behaviour.

          So yes, let's hope, humanity "will have another Buddha era" too! It's all up to us and the magic charm is within us to achieve that.

          Wish you a great day my friend,

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