A New Confirmation of the POM Thesis

JcollinsEconomics, Premium POM

Former IMF Deputy Director Mohamed El-Erian has published a piece with Project Syndicate which all but confirms the thesis which we have been discussing here on Philosophy of Metrics for years. The call for a broader use of the SDR is not the surprising part. What is surprising is El-Erian’s suggestion that the growing anti-globalization political movements and trade protectionism should be the call to implement a “stronger multilateral core for the world economy” which would “reduce the risk of damaging fragmentation”.

Readers will pick up on the reference to the “new modern nationalism” theme which I have suggested would be used as the springboard to further advance the transformation of the international monetary framework. The use of the word “fragmentation” is also a strong reference to the deeper articles which exist here on POM.

We Are All Savage

JcollinsEsoteric, Premium POM

Understanding the Masonic Pillars of Boaz and Jachin

The wilderness calls forth the mysterious challenge upon which the weight of the world rests its hopes and dreams. The Hebrews were lost in the wilderness for a longtime. Within its rankness and thickness the hopeless wander in savage and stupefied abandon. There is but one path which leads out of the wilderness. This path is seldom discovered and even less seldom traveled by the weighted and weary.

The wilderness has mineral, vegetable and animal parts. Man, the personification of the wilderness, is the physical accumulation of mineral, vegetable and animal. It is in our blood and kidney’s. It is in the plant like nature of our circulatory and nervous systems. It is the meat of our flesh and the marrow of our bones.

More Trouble for Egypt on the Horizon

JcollinsEconomics, Geopolitical, Premium POM

A recent statement by China and Egypt endorsing the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road Initiative will draw the ire of the Anglo-American establishment. Both are together known as the Belt and Road Initiative and represent the initial phase of the Eurasian Economic Union which is being promoted by Russia.

Readers of the article The Great War for Eurasia will understand that the battle for Eurasia is being fought and won on the outskirts of the Eurasian continent. The so-called civil war in Ukraine is far from over and has been left smouldering so it can be reignited when needed down the road. The unfolding situations in Syria and North Korea are fast moving towards some sort of transformation one way or the other.

Either both regions will see a semi-peaceful change and acceptance by the Anglo-American establishment towards allowing the continent to decide its own destiny within the Eurasia Union or they will collapse into all-out warfare which could drag on for years.

The announcement by China and Egypt on Belt and Road initiatives will ensure that Egypt gets further embroiled in the incremental strategies which represent the great war for Eurasia. A few months back both nations signed a currency sway arrangement which was meant to assist Egypt with its economic challenges and set the framework for integration into the emerging Eurasian Economic Union.

The Artificial Man

JcollinsCultural, Economics, Premium POM

Freedom, Capitalism and Robot Ownership

The expansion of simulated human culture, which ironically functions and exists in the real world, started with the industrial revolution. It was during this era that man began to shift responsibilities onto inanimate and non-conscious objects and machines which lessened the workload of his accountabilities.

Though small at first, the evolution of industrialism and technological conveniences brought with it a sort of unnatural and simulated interaction with the physical world. This interaction was based on a third dynamic which was inserted in between man and the natural world. Washing machines, trains, ovens, dishwashers, hydraulic systems, power systems, electricity, telecommunication, computers, and even cameras, all contributed to man using less of the organic and physical capabilities provided to him. From strong hands to brain memory, nothing was left untouched. All human functions began to rely on the artificial and simulated characteristics of machines.

The expansion of capitalism rode on the back of the industrial revolution and experienced its best periods as industrialism took hold and job growth was rampant. Reliance on machines and technology did not just make each individual human life better but it also made the life of corporations better as improved efficiencies and productivity were sought.

The inevitable loss of jobs for the average man which took place was offset by new jobs which required additional skills and improved cognitive abilities. This created new avenues of human opportunity through the use of trade schools and the expansion of educational curriculums to include specific cultural and socioeconomic considerations.

It was this very transformation of mind and cognitive semi-rationalization which man utilized to expand thought-forms and manufacture a simulated world around him. Something needed to happen with all the extra time the human brain now had. The rise of the liberal-left mindset could have very well been a product of this “available” brain activity as it acted on the deficiencies which were epidemic in the young ideals of capitalism.

The trade unions and political movements which emerged to protect the rights of the workers provided the base structure of the future liberal order. This order would eventually corrupt the original ideals of capitalism and use that system of socioeconomics to strengthen and spread the leftist mandates of socialism.

Keep in mind that these are the broad strokes and each area mentioned in the article is a full on research discussion in itself. What is important to focus on is that the expansion of worldwide socialism is in fact the liberal-left objective, and the advanced technology which we have at our fingertips today is meant to serve as the Trojan horse for that socialism.

The Trump Gold Standard with China and Russia

JcollinsEconomics, Premium POM

POM called the China Mar-A-Lago visit 4 months ago. Let’s see what happens this week as Xi visits Trump on Thursday and Friday.

From the Dec 5 post:

“The stage could very well be getting set for a return to sound money principles with the establishment of semi-gold standards in not just China and America, but also Russia and India, and perhaps a few smaller players as well. It is obvious that the Trump machine is more aligned with these international players than the Anglo-American establishment which he just overthrew domestically.”

This also aligns with the recent announcement of coordination between China and Russia on monetary matters as the Central Bank of Russia opens a representative location in Beijing. The South China Morning Post is also reporting that Russia and China will be making transfers between their gold trading platforms more open and efficient.

Some are getting excited about this and promoting the concept that China and Russia are about to switch to gold-back currencies and completely by-pass the USD. I can assure you that this is not the case. Ease of trade between each others gold trading platforms does not support the leap of gold backed currency. But it could be a step towards some form of partial gold backing as was described in the POM post from last December.

America has to be a part of whatever path forward is taken. This is why Russia and China are working towards alignment with Trump on monetary and geopolitical matters. It will take the coordinated effort of both of the worlds largest economies, America and China, to rebalance the international monetary system.

PrimNomics – The First Division

JcollinsEconomics, Esoteric, Premium POM, PrimNomics

Fragmentation in Pursuit of Self-Preservation

This article was originally posted on October 8, 2014.

“He is led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention.” – Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, 1776

On March 9, 1776, the book titled The Wealth of Nations, a compilation of economic essays by Adam Smith, was published. This was in the early days of the American War for Independence and the air was full of hope and transformation. On May 1 of the same year the secret society known as the Illuminati was founded by Adam Weishaupt.

And later that year, in December, Thomas Paine writes the now famous line in which in which he states:

“These are the times that try men’s souls.”

When we reflect from our vantage point today do we find that the times are any different? The souls of men are still being challenged and invisible hands still appear to be guiding events in the direction that the majority do not wish to be moving. Secret societies are still in the background manipulating the disorganized masses, as can be attested too by the overwhelming masonic symbolism in our socioeconomic environment, and the world stands on the cusp of a constant revolution. A revolution which never seems to materialize.

When Will Trump Ask the Federal Reserve to Devalue the Dollar?

JcollinsEconomics, Premium POM

The time is fast approaching when President Donald Trump will ask the Federal Reserve to devalue the dollar. Hints and statements regarding the dollar being overvalued have been tossed around a few times since the new administration took office. The foreshadowing which is taking place will lead to the eventual implementation of a lower dollar policy.

The benefits of such a policy will be broad and will complement both domestic and international mandates which are developing.

Domestically a lower dollar will improve American exports as US made goods become more affordable to other nations which wish to import them. This means more manufacturing in country and more jobs to meet those growing demands. Companies which once moved overseas will look at coming back and setting up shop.

Another added benefit would be the increase in GDP which will lower the debt-to-GDP ratio. This is important because under the current system of money creation debt management is the name of the game. At the end of WW2 America had a debt-to-GDP ratio of 140% which is still far from where it is today. Increasing GDP now will lower this ratio and make debt management more functional.

Global Rebalancing Begins as China Opens Up Massive $9 Trillion Dollar Bond Market

JcollinsEconomics, Premium POM

The internationalization of the Chinese renminbi has been the foremost objective which needs to be realized in order for the rebalancing of the international monetary system to take place. The plethora of policy adjustments and reforms to global institutions have all been building towards lower demand for USD denominated assets and increasing demand for RMB denominated assets.

Those working towards transforming and rebalancing the international monetary system have been managing in the direction of creating a framework which will be based on a multi-currency reserve system. This system would utilize predominantly the USD and RMB to achieve this rebalancing, with other currencies taking up the responsibilities which come with minor reserve positions.

One of the core methods by which these objectives can be reached is by China opening up their massive $9 trillion dollar bond market to foreign investors. This would create the dollar alternatives which will assist in shifting the wealth of the world. This shift will free the USD up for some much needed devaluation. It will also assist in stabilizing the renminbi and encouraging a much needed appreciation.

The Worlds Waning Appetite for the USD

JcollinsEconomics, Premium POM

So much has changed so fast. These changes haven’t been discussed on the evening news and broadcasted across the airwaves. They haven’t been streaming on YouTube with millions of views and subscribers, nor have they been used as political platforms. But the changes have happened and most of us go about our lives with little, if any, knowledge and awareness about them.

The need for these changes has been building for decades and has now become one of the most important aspects of international relations. Economic and monetary specialists have been warning for a long time that imbalances are developing in the international monetary system. These imbalances are a direct result of the role of the American dollar as the primary reserve currency used in global trade.

When the post war dollar system was established at Bretton Woods in 1944 the United States had a larger percentage of the worlds GDP. It is estimated to have been at 50% and made the case for the use of the dollar as the primary reserve currency all the more reasonable. Nations began to accumulate large amount of US dollars in their foreign exchange reserve accounts.

Vietnamese Dong and a Possible Currency Crisis

JcollinsEconomics, Premium POM

A Pretext for Exchange Rate Adjustments

The Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) published a working paper which suggested there was an increased probability of a Vietnamese currency crisis in the event there were sudden international financial shocks or changes in monetary policy. The paper detailed a broad scope of economic parameters and monetary fundamentals to support the thesis of potential overvaluation. Missing data sets included capital flows and changes to the exchange rate arrangement which the dong holds against the US dollar.

It is difficult for the ADBI to make firm conclusions without including information which determines capital flows, such as foreign direct investment, foreign portfolio investment, worker’s remittance, and official development assistance in the nation. None of this was included in the report, so we must consider the conclusions of enhanced overvaluation risks associated with a currency crisis to be somewhat speculative.

Still, there are some patterns which can be assumed based on the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997 and 1998. That crisis was sparked by a strong dollar which put additional stress on the emerging markets in Asia. The incremental and methodical interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve is once again causing concern as it could lead to a stronger dollar and a repeat of the 1997 scenario.

The ASEAN nations and trade bloc have taken some steps to minimize the repeat of such impacts but whether they are enough is not known until the time comes. This is where a currency crisis becomes possible.

The Trump pull out of the TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership) trade deal with the ASEAN nations has forced a restructuring amongst the regional trade group. Vietnam, who was one of the strategic and broad particpants in the TPP, is now forced to look towards deeper integration within the ASEAN bloc to ensure it has access to foreign markets for its exports.